THE HURRICANE OF OCTOBER 25, 1921, AT TAMPA, FLA.

A Reanalysis of the 1921–30 Atlantic Hurricane Database*

A reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database (‘‘best track’’) for the period from 1921 to 1930 has been completed. This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. ...

Arbiter, October 25

Forecasting October–November Caribbean hurricane days

[1] October–November Caribbean hurricane activity can have profound impacts on the region through loss of life and devastation of property. Large‐scale climate parameters associated with active late seasons in the Caribbean are investigated in this paper. Among the primary features that are noted are atmospheric and oceanic conditions typical of La Niña and a larger‐than‐normal Atlantic Warm Po...

Lecture 18: October 25 18.1 Martingales

As a motivation, consider a fair game (i.e., the expected win/loss from each play of the game is zero). Suppose a gambler plays the game multiple times; neither his stakes, nor the outcome of the games need be independent, but each play is fair. Let Zi denote the outcome of the i game and Xi the gambler’s capital after game i. Fairness ensures that the expected capital after a game is the same ...

Erratum, Vol. 9, October 25 Release